Tuesday, January 18, 2011

The uncertain future of AECL

The window to the future of Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL) is far from clear. AECL, the owner and developer of the Canada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) reactor technology, has been searching for an investor for the past two years to help move the technology forward. Now, the two potential parties that were interested in purchasing the commercial divisions of AECL have reportedly backed away from the negotiations.

CBC News reported that one of the key shareholders of Bruce Power Corp., the only company officially left in the running as of Jan. 1, was opposed to buying AECL. According to a Canadian Press report, Bruce Power's CEO told staff that the firm had dropped out of the bidding process.

So where does the AECL go from here? That is a question that no one seems to know an answer to.

Currently there are 18 operating reactors in three Canadian provinces: New Brunswick, Ontario and Quebec. Three reactors are in the middle of refurbishment projects. And Canada has plans for more reactors. Ontario Power Generation had plans to build up to four new reactors that could generate up to 4,800 MW at the Darlington station. But due to the to the uncertain ownership future of AECL that project has been stalled.

In the December issue of Nuclear Power International magazine, Pierre Gauthier, president of Alstom in the U.S. and Canada, told me that “there is still a need for at least 2,000 MW.” “(And) we know the Ontario government would like to have this supplied by additional nuclear power plants.”

And Ontario Energy Minister Brad Duguid seems to agree. He told The Toronto Star that Ontario still has plans to build two new reactors, but that the province won’t become part of a new ownership group in AECL.

But the AECL does not only develop reactors for the Canadian market. To date, there are 29 Candu reactors in seven countries, according to the World Nuclear Association. And one of the goals of a new ownership would be to continue the exportation of the technology to increase the nuclear renaissance wave.

“We are hoping that the decision in Ontario will be made very soon," said Dr. Neil Alexander, president of the Organization of CANDU Industries. "And that would be us on the front end of the wave in the Western countries in new build.”

But, “I think we would all understand someone not wanting to buy a machine worth billions of dollars that is expected to operate for 60 years from someone who’s ownership remains uncertain.”

And uncertain, it certainly does appear to be.

Monday, January 10, 2011

Duke and Progress merger could produce largest regulated nuclear fleet

On Jan. 10, Duke Energy and Progress Energy announced a $13.7 billion plan to merge the two utilities. If approved, the merger could result in the United States’ largest regulated nuclear fleet.

Currently, Duke Energy operates seven reactors at three sites in North and South Carolina. Between the Oconee, Catawba and McGuire stations Duke has a total nuclear capacity of roughly 6.7 GWe. Duke also has plans to build two AP1000 reactors at the William States Lee in South Carolina. The application for this site was submitted in 2007 and Duke anticipates a license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the 2013 timeframe, said company spokesperson Rita Sipa. But Sipa does not expect the merger to change the course of the application process and Duke “will continue to move forward.”

Progress Energy brings roughly 4.3 GWe of nuclear capacity to the merger. Progress operates five reactors at four sites in the Carolinas and Florida. Like Duke, Progress is also in the license application process with the NRC. Progress has proposed two sites to build new reactors. Two AP1000 reactors are planned at its Levy County site in Florida, although it has been delayed pending the receipt of a license.

Even though, they are still pursuing the combined construction and operating license and the company is keeping that option available for the future and that “will not change with merger” said Progress Energy spokesperson Mike Hughes. Progress also submitted a combined construction and operating license in 2008 for two additional reactors at its Shearon Harris plant in North Carolina.

If the merger is completed, the NRC would have to review license transfer applications for the operating reactors. And NRC spokesperson Scott Burnell said that the regulator has a well-established process in place to ensure the proposed license transfers meet regulations. Proposed reactor applications would have to be updated to reflect the new applicant, as well.

But the two companies are not even to that point yet. The completion of the merger could take up to a year. Yet, Hughes said they do not see that process as a “stumbling block anyway” due to both companies’ strong history and experience in nuclear operations.

“Being part of the nations regulated nuclear fleet and part of a much larger company gives us a great foundation from which not only to enhance existing nuclear operations but to also pursue new nuclear,” he said.

With a combined enterprise value of $65 billion, the company that will be known solely as Duke Energy looks to have the capital to move forward with new nuclear in the U.S.

For now, Duke and Progress will continue to operate their respected plants as is.