The uncertain future of AECL

The window to the future of Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL) is far from clear. AECL, the owner and developer of the Canada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) reactor technology, has been searching for an investor for the past two years to help move the technology forward. Now, the two potential parties that were interested in purchasing the commercial divisions of AECL have reportedly backed away from the negotiations.

CBC News reported that one of the key shareholders of Bruce Power Corp., the only company officially left in the running as of Jan. 1, was opposed to buying AECL. According to a Canadian Press report, Bruce Power's CEO told staff that the firm had dropped out of the bidding process.

So where does the AECL go from here? That is a question that no one seems to know an answer to.

Currently there are 18 operating reactors in three Canadian provinces: New Brunswick, Ontario and Quebec. Three reactors are in the middle of refurbishment projects. And Canada has plans for more reactors. Ontario Power Generation had plans to build up to four new reactors that could generate up to 4,800 MW at the Darlington station. But due to the to the uncertain ownership future of AECL that project has been stalled.

In the December issue of Nuclear Power International magazine, Pierre Gauthier, president of Alstom in the U.S. and Canada, told me that “there is still a need for at least 2,000 MW.” “(And) we know the Ontario government would like to have this supplied by additional nuclear power plants.”

And Ontario Energy Minister Brad Duguid seems to agree. He told The Toronto Star that Ontario still has plans to build two new reactors, but that the province won’t become part of a new ownership group in AECL.

But the AECL does not only develop reactors for the Canadian market. To date, there are 29 Candu reactors in seven countries, according to the World Nuclear Association. And one of the goals of a new ownership would be to continue the exportation of the technology to increase the nuclear renaissance wave.

“We are hoping that the decision in Ontario will be made very soon," said Dr. Neil Alexander, president of the Organization of CANDU Industries. "And that would be us on the front end of the wave in the Western countries in new build.”

But, “I think we would all understand someone not wanting to buy a machine worth billions of dollars that is expected to operate for 60 years from someone who’s ownership remains uncertain.”

And uncertain, it certainly does appear to be.